The Denver Broncos finally got their guy in Russell Wilson after what felt like three seasons of every disgruntled quarterback in the NFL rumored to be headed to Mile High.
Wilson joins the arms race of elite QBs in the AFC West and is free from the constraints of Seattle’s offense, which often had its quarterback fighting against the tide. An unleashed Russ is complemented by a competent defense for the first time since his Super Bowl runs.
The NFL odds suggest the Broncos will need all of it if they’re going to survive not only life in the deepest division in football, but a schedule that sends countless contenders at Denver, including a home stretch that looks like the top of the Super Bowl futures board. Oh, and the Broncos are working in a baby-fresh head coach and new coordinators. So, there’s that.
Get out the oxygen tanks and suck back a big breath of our Denver Broncos 2022 NFL betting preview.
Denver Broncos futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +2,000 |
| To win conference | +1,150 |
| To win division | +285 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 9.5 (Over -135) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -140 / No +120 |
Best futures bet: Make Playoffs — Yes -140
The Broncos’ season win total bounces between 9.5 and 10 and the lookahead lines have Denver pegged for at least 11 victories in 2022. The schedule has layups in the first half of the calendar, but shit gets real after the Week 9 bye.
I want to believe in double-digit wins for Denver, but I get stumped at nine W’s when scouring the calendar, and that’s with the Broncos splitting six AFC West matchups.
Rather than lay -130 with Over 9.5 wins, I can take Denver to qualify for the playoffs. It mixes my moderate optimism on the Broncos with my downward projections for teams like Las Vegas, Cleveland, Miami, and Tennessee.
Denver Broncos betting overview
What will win bets: DangerRuss
Russell Wilson is magic. No, I don’t mean the way soccer announcers say “magic.” I mean that MFer is actually magic — straight out of Hogwarts. There are a handful of quarterbacks in the league who continue to connect on game-changing throws that have no business being completions. Russ is one of them.
You can call it luck, but Wilson has been lifting so-so offenses above and beyond with his special brand of wizardry for years. In Denver, not only does he have a cupboard stocked with quality ingredients and an operational offensive line, but a coach and system that actually wants to throw the ball.
During his time with the Seahawks (2012-2021), Wilson helped lead Seattle bettors to an 86-69-6 record against the spread (55.5%) in the regular season and missed only three of those games (coming last season with a busted finger). I’m a big believer in Wilson and think his impact is being undervalued.
What will lose bets: Coaching competition
The move to drop Vic Fangio for offensive-minded new head coach Nathaniel Hackett is a positive but the former Green Bay OC is cracking the seal on his head coaching career and does so with two coordinators new to those roles. That lack of experience worries the Broncos enough that they brought in Dom Capers as a “senior defensive assistant” — a role he played while babysitting Dan Campbell and Aaron Glen in Detroit last year.
Hackett & Co. not only find themselves up against an avalanche of top-tier NFL talent in 2022 but also some brilliant brains on the opposite sideline. Even against some of the weaker opponents on the sked, the Broncos will be outclassed by more experienced rival coaches. Then doo-doo really hits the fan in the home stretch versus strategists like John Harbaugh, Sean McVay, and Andy Reid (twice).
There will be at least a few weeks in which this young staff catches the blame for blowing a game, and Broncos bettors will be sour.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Las Vegas Raiders betting preview
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- Defensive Player of the Year odds
Denver Broncos game-by-game odds
The Broncos’ lookahead lines have them favored in as many as 10 games (including a OTB home date with the Jets. They were -7.5 before Zach Wilson’s injury), while some other early-bird books have as many as four pick’em lines for Denver. All in all, those spreads project 11 wins for the 2022 Broncos, which would clear their season win total of 9.5.
Pump the breaks on that Over bet, though. Denver’s sked ranks out 15th in standard strength of schedule, but it lines up across from the T-2 QB SOS — not only facing the murderer’s row of quarterbacks within the division but also taking on the likes of Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford.
There’s a bye in Week 9, separating what are two contrasting sides of the schedule. Denver plays some weaker foes in the first eight games, including Seattle, Houston, the Jets and Jacksonville (in London). It also gets two of its tougher adversaries at home in that stretch (San Francisco and Indianapolis) before a banana-balls “Hunger Games” run to the finish line from Week 10 onward, with five of those contests coming on the road.
| 1 | @ Seattle | -5.5 | 41.5 |
| 2 | vs. Houston | -10.5 | 42.5 |
| 3 | vs. San Francisco | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| 4 | @ Las Vegas | PK | 47.5 |
| 5 | vs. Indianapolis | -3 | 45 |
| 6 | @ L.A. Chargers | +3 | 48.5 |
| 7 | vs. N.Y. Jets | OTB | OTB |
| 8 | vs. Jacksonville (UK) | -6 | 47 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | @ Tennessee | PK | 45 |
| 11 | vs. Las Vegas | -4.5 | 46 |
| 12 | @ Carolina | -4.5 | 43.5 |
| 13 | @ Baltimore | +3 | 48 |
| 14 | vs. Kansas City | +1 | 48.5 |
| 15 | vs. Arizona | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| 16 | @ L.A. Rams | +3.5 | 47.5 |
| 17 | @ Kansas City | +4 | 48.5 |
| 18 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -1.5 | 44 |
Denver Broncos pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Despite the acquisition of Russell Wilson, the Broncos are, in my opinion, clearly behind the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
